When you want to sell a house FAST in a SLOW real estate market, one of the things you must do is develop your own comp book of data that’s relevant and specific to your house and the immediate competition.
You will want to stick with information about the three key factors:
location, size (square footage), and the number of bedrooms and baths.
When comparing locations stick to your “defined geography.” Defined
geography is the boundaries of your local market, typically within a
one-mile radius or less, and the area where houses are similar to yours.
The comp book will be your best friend throughout the selling process
because it provides the factual data around which you will base not
only your decisions, but also your advertising, marketing, and sales
pitch. This will be core data that will be indisputable by any
professional (agent, appraiser, home inspector, lender, or insurance
agent) you may come across throughout the transaction.
The comp book should contain the following information:
Sold Homes
List homes most similar to your own in terms of location, style, size,
and utility. In other words, if you have a ranch, try to find other
ranches. If you have a three-bedroom home, try to find other
three-bedroom homes. For purposes of comparisons, the houses on your
own block are better than houses farther away, but anything in the same
subdivision will generally suffice, so long as it is similar in size.
The most recent sales are the most relevant, and while appraisers will
generally consider sales six months old in a normal market, you should
stick with the most recent (two to three months old) sales in a
declining market. If you can’t find such recent comps, then you can
look at more recent sales of homes that are different in style and
within a radius of up to one mile, assuming you don’t go outside the
neighborhood boundaries. You can go to surrounding neighborhoods so
long as they are similar in schools, price range, size, style, and age
of homes.
Under-contract Homes
Using the same guidelines as above, you want to know all of the
relevant properties that are currently under contract. This will tell
you where the market is currently heading in terms of current demand.
Note the difference between the asking and selling prices of these
homes, which can be obtained by calling the listing agent’s office.
Homes for Sale
In a declining market, homes currently for sale are even more important
than homes sold, for purposes of comparison because they will indicate
the pricing trend. In fact, you should check for new homes listed for
sale and current homes for sale price changes every week in your
neighborhood to keep an eye on your competition.
Neighborhood Information
Gather all pertinent information about schools, zoning, homeowners
associations, neighborhood amenities, local shopping, and attractions.
Expired Listings
Look at houses that were listed for sale and did not sell. The question
you have to determine is “Why did it not sell?” In most cases, the
answer is that the property was mispriced. However, many times the
problem was a lack of effective marketing. It is a good idea to
determine which scenario occurred. The owner may have been
uncooperative with the agent in showing the property or keeping the
property in a presentable state. The agent may have either made an
error or done a poor job at listing the property, limiting the full
exposure to the marketplace. Since buyers use the computer to screen
properties, poor or missing photos, wrong schools, the incorrect size
of the house, wrong number of bedrooms, and other information can
result in fewer buyers who are interested in viewing the property.
Speaking to the owner and the listing agent will give you two of the
three possible versions of the truth, the last of which is your job to
determine!
Bracketing
Bracketing is the idea of determining where your house is positioned
within a group of competitors, whether sold, under contract, or for
sale. For example, you would want to find a half dozen properties
superior to yours and a half dozen inferior to yours within the
criteria discussed above; then analyze the prices to determine where
you fit.
The Quantity of Data
Obviously, you don’t want to over-analyze or under-analyze the
information in your market. We’ve found that a comprehensive amount of
data at the micro-view level would be the best dozen sold, the best
dozen under contract, the best dozen expired listings, and the best
dozen houses for sale. The micro-view looks at the neighborhood level
and how your home fits in. At this level we’re going beyond the market
factors in general and looking at particular values within your
specific geographic area—the closer to your house, the better.
The Quality of the Data
Bear in mind that all sales are not what they appear to be.
Verification of the data is often done by picking up the phone and
asking the agent if the sales price was the actual sales price or
whether it included seller concessions such as monies for closing costs
or repairs or other miscellaneous items. Occasionally, a sale price
will make no sense and will be way out of line with what would seem to
be a reasonable value. In these cases, simply disregard that data as an
anomaly. Inter-family sales, foreclosure sales, and estate sales are
some examples.
Timeliness of Data
The timeliness of this data must be considered in relation to the
macro-view, also known as the “supply quotient.” The supply quotient is
simply a ratio of the number of homes for sale in your area divided by
the number of closings in the last 30 days. The supply quotient is a
very useful indicator of supply and demand in your neighborhood.
It helps you estimate the number of months it would take to sell your
home. For example, if 60 houses are for sale and 10 have sold in the
last month, then the supply quotient is 6. Thus, if no other houses
went on the market, it would take 6 months to sell all the current
inventory.
A supply quotient of six is a market in which sellers and buyers are
balanced and equal in force. The lower the quotient, the better the
market is for sellers, hence a seller’s market. The greater the
quotient is above six, the better the market is for buyers, which
indicates a buyer’s market. In other words, if the market is changing
as determined by the macro-view, then an appropriate time-value
adjustment will be necessary at the end of our calculations. In real
estate, pricing the property with an eye on the supply quotient and the
greater market forces is key to avoiding the unrecoverable mistake of
mispricing the house when it first goes on the market.
Lastly, the uniqueness and rarity of your type of property can have
positive value implications, assuming that the buyers in the market
will appreciate them. This adjustment is determined here and now at the
micro-level. For example, assuming you do your research and estimate
your property’s worth at $250,000, and you also know that prices are
declining one percent per month, you need to be able to price your
property to keep ahead of this curve.
The Defined Area
Appraisers and loan underwriters generally look at comparable sales
within one mile of the subject property. However, in populated cities,
one mile may be too far. In rural areas, one mile may be too close.
Within a subdivision, you’ll find variations in lots that affect
privacy, road noise, or sunlight. These lot variations won’t affect the
valuation unless an extreme difference exists. For example, if a row of
houses backs to a major road, this may drop the value of the house by
as much as 10 percent. If a row of houses backs to power lines or a
garbage dump, the discount may be even more substantial.
On the other hand, a great view may push values in a positive way, of
course. A location on a golf course, lake, ocean, or simply having a
killer view may push values up by 25 percent.
Take note of the tax-assessed land value versus the improvements, then
note what the average lot premium or discount amounts to. You can check
the lot premium in new home developments by asking the builder. In more
established areas, the home sale records of similar houses in the
neighborhood will be reflected in the prices of houses sold that are
the same model, but have different lots. Amateurs often make the
mistake of comparing houses that are across the street from each other,
overlooking the fact that the lots have significant variations.
Remember when trying to sell a house fast in a slow market, knowledge
is power. Organize your information and develop a comp book with data
about your market and you will be a big step ahead of the other sellers
in your neighborhood!
Excerpt from William Bronchick and Ray Cooper’s How to SELL a House FAST in a SLOW Real Estate Market, published by Wiley, 2008.
William Bronchick of Denver, Colorado is an attorney, author and active investor in residential housing. He is the President and co-founder of the Colorado Association of Real Estate Investors. For more info click over to www.legalwiz.com .
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